Close races, of course, get the most money. But even long shots and good bets get a dollar from time to time.
We take FiveThirtyEight’s House and Senate forecasts and use them to compute how much candidates should get relative to each other.
A candidate with a 50% chance of winning gets approximately:
Because ActBlue requires a minimum donation of $1 per candidate, if the calculated amount is below $1.00 we round it up or down randomly. Half the time, $0.50 becomes $1.00. Half the time it becomes nothing.
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